Predicting asthma control and exacerbations: chronic asthma as a complex dynamic model

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Predicting asthma episodes is notoriously difficult but has potentially significant consequences for the individual, as well as for healthcare services. The purpose of this review is to describe recent insights into the prediction of acute asthma episodes in relation to classical clinical, functional or inflammatory variables, as well as present a new concept for evaluating asthma as a dynamically regulated homeokinetic system. RECENT FINDINGS: Risk prediction for asthma episodes or relapse has been attempted using clinical scoring systems, considerations of environmental factors and lung function, as well as inflammatory and immunological markers in induced sputum or exhaled air, and these are summarized here. We have recently proposed that newer mathematical methods derived from statistical physics may be used to understand the complexity of asthma as a homeokinetic, dynamic system consisting of a network comprising multiple components, and also to assess the risk for future asthma episodes based on fluctuation analysis of long time series of lung function. SUMMARY: Apart from the classical analysis of risk factor and functional parameters, this new approach may be used to assess asthma control and treatment effects in the individual as well as in future research trials.

Complexity of chronic asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: implications for risk assessment, and disease progression and control

Although assessment of asthma control is important to guide treatment, it is difficult since the temporal pattern and risk of exacerbations are often unpredictable. In this Review, we summarise the classic methods to assess control with unidimensional and multidimensional approaches. Next, we show how ideas from the science of complexity can explain the seemingly unpredictable nature of bronchial asthma and emphysema, with implications for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. We show that fluctuation analysis, a method used in statistical physics, can be used to gain insight into asthma as a dynamic disease of the respiratory system, viewed as a set of interacting subsystems (eg, inflammatory, immunological, and mechanical). The basis of the fluctuation analysis methods is the quantification of the long-term temporal history of lung function parameters. We summarise how this analysis can be used to assess the risk of future asthma episodes, with implications for asthma severity and control both in children and adults.

A simple asthma prediction tool for preschool children with wheeze or cough

BACKGROUND Many preschool children have wheeze or cough, but only some have asthma later. Existing prediction tools are difficult to apply in clinical practice or exhibit methodological weaknesses. OBJECTIVE We sought to develop a simple and robust tool for predicting asthma at school age in preschool children with wheeze or cough. METHODS From a population-based cohort in Leicestershire, United Kingdom, we included 1- to 3-year-old subjects seeing a doctor for wheeze or cough and assessed the prevalence of asthma 5 years later. We considered only noninvasive predictors that are easy to assess in primary care: demographic and perinatal data, eczema, upper and lower respiratory tract symptoms, and family history of atopy. We developed a model using logistic regression, avoided overfitting with the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator penalty, and then simplified it to a practical tool. We performed internal validation and assessed its predictive performance using the scaled Brier score and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS Of 1226 symptomatic children with follow-up information, 345 (28%) had asthma 5 years later. The tool consists of 10 predictors yielding a total score between 0 and 15: sex, age, wheeze without colds, wheeze frequency, activity disturbance, shortness of breath, exercise-related and aeroallergen-related wheeze/cough, eczema, and parental history of asthma/bronchitis. The scaled Brier scores for the internally validated model and tool were 0.20 and 0.16, and the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.76 and 0.74, respectively. CONCLUSION This tool represents a simple, low-cost, and noninvasive method to predict the risk of later asthma in symptomatic preschool children, which is ready to be tested in other populations.

Asthma and obesity in children: current evidence and potential systems biology approaches.

Both obesity and asthma are highly prevalent, complex diseases modified by multiple factors. Genetic, developmental, lung mechanical, immunological and behavioural factors have all been suggested as playing a causal role between the two entities; however, their complex mechanistic interactions are still poorly understood and evidence of causality in children remains scant. Equally lacking is evidence of effective treatment strategies, despite the fact that imbalances at vulnerable phases in childhood can impact long-term health. This review is targeted at both clinicians frequently faced with the dilemma of how to investigate and treat the obese asthmatic child and researchers interested in the topic. Highlighting the breadth of the spectrum of factors involved, this review collates evidence regarding the investigation and treatment of asthma in obese children, particularly in comparison with current approaches in 'difficult-to-treat' childhood asthma. Finally, the authors propose hypotheses for future research from a systems-based perspective.

Statement on smoking cessation in COPD and other pulmonary diseases and in smokers with comorbidities who find it difficult to quit.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lung cancer, asthma and pulmonary tuberculosis are common pulmonary diseases that are caused or worsened by tobacco smoking. Growing observational evidence suggests that symptoms and prognosis of these conditions improve upon smoking cessation. Despite increasing numbers of (small) randomised controlled trials suggesting intensive smoking cessation treatments work in people with pulmonary diseases many patients are not given specific advice on the benefits or referred for intensive cessation treatments and, therefore, continue smoking. This is a qualitative review regarding smoking cessation in patients with COPD and other pulmonary disorders, written by a group of European Respiratory Society experts. We describe the epidemiological links between smoking and pulmonary disorders, the evidence for benefits of stopping smoking, how best to assess tobacco dependence and what interventions currently work best to help pulmonary patients quit. Finally, we describe characteristics and management of any "hardcore" smoker who finds it difficult to quit with standard approaches.

Variability of lung function predicts loss of asthma control following withdrawal of inhaled corticosteroid treatment

BACKGROUND One aspect of a multidimensional approach to understanding asthma as a complex dynamic disease is to study how lung function varies with time. Variability measures of lung function have been shown to predict response to beta(2)-agonist treatment. An investigation was conducted to determine whether mean, coefficient of variation (CV) or autocorrelation, a measure of short-term memory, of peak expiratory flow (PEF) could predict loss of asthma control following withdrawal of regular inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) treatment, using data from a previous study. METHODS 87 adult patients with mild to moderate asthma who had been taking ICS at a constant dose for at least 6 months were monitored for 2-4 weeks. ICS was then withdrawn and monitoring continued until loss of control occurred as per predefined criteria. Twice-daily PEF was recorded during monitoring. Associations between loss of control and mean, CV and autocorrelation of morning PEF within 2 weeks pre- and post-ICS withdrawal were assessed using Cox regression analysis. Predictive utility was assessed using receiver operator characteristics. RESULTS 53 out of 87 patients had sufficient PEF data over the required analysis period. The mean (389 vs 370 l/min, p<0.0001) and CV (4.5% vs 5.6%, p=0.007) but not autocorrelation of PEF changed significantly from prewithdrawal to postwithdrawal in subjects who subsequently lost control, and were unaltered in those who did not. These changes were related to time to loss of control. CV was the most consistent predictor, with similar sensitivity and sensitivity to exhaled nitric oxide. CONCLUSION A simple, easy to obtain variability measure of daily lung function such as the CV may predict loss of asthma control within the first 2 weeks of ICS withdrawal.

Awake tracheal intubation using the Sensascope in 13 patients with an anticipated difficult airway

We present the use of the SensaScope, an S-shaped rigid fibreoptic scope with a flexible distal end, in a series of 13 patients at high risk of, or known to have, a difficult intubation. Patients received conscious sedation with midazolam or fentanyl combined with a remifentanil infusion and topical lidocaine to the oral mucosa and to the trachea via a trans-cricoid injection. Spontaneous ventilation was maintained until confirmation of tracheal intubation. In all cases, tracheal intubation was achieved using the SensaScope. The median (IQR [range]) insertion time (measured from the time the facemask was taken away from the face until an end-expiratory CO(2) reading was visible on the monitor) was 58 s (38-111 [28-300]s). In nine of the 13 cases, advancement of the SensaScope into the trachea was easy. Difficulties included a poor view associated with a bleeding diathesis and saliva, transient loss of spontaneous breathing, and difficulty in advancing the tracheal tube in a patient with unforeseen tracheal narrowing. A poor view in two patients was partially improved by a high continuous flow of oxygen. The SensaScope may be a valuable alternative to other rigid or flexible fibreoptic scopes for awake intubation of spontaneously breathing patients with a predicted difficult airway.

Phenotypes of childhood asthma: are they real?

It has been suggested that there are several distinct phenotypes of childhood asthma or childhood wheezing. Here, we review the research relating to these phenotypes, with a focus on the methods used to define and validate them. Childhood wheezing disorders manifest themselves in a range of observable (phenotypic) features such as lung function, bronchial responsiveness, atopy and a highly variable time course (prognosis). The underlying causes are not sufficiently understood to define disease entities based on aetiology. Nevertheless, there is a need for a classification that would (i) facilitate research into aetiology and pathophysiology, (ii) allow targeted treatment and preventive measures and (iii) improve the prediction of long-term outcome. Classical attempts to define phenotypes have been one-dimensional, relying on few or single features such as triggers (exclusive viral wheeze vs. multiple trigger wheeze) or time course (early transient wheeze, persistent and late onset wheeze). These definitions are simple but essentially subjective. Recently, a multi-dimensional approach has been adopted. This approach is based on a wide range of features and relies on multivariate methods such as cluster or latent class analysis. Phenotypes identified in this manner are more complex but arguably more objective. Although phenotypes have an undisputed standing in current research on childhood asthma and wheezing, there is confusion about the meaning of the term 'phenotype' causing much circular debate. If phenotypes are meant to represent 'real' underlying disease entities rather than superficial features, there is a need for validation and harmonization of definitions. The multi-dimensional approach allows validation by replication across different populations and may contribute to a more reliable classification of childhood wheezing disorders and to improved precision of research relying on phenotype recognition, particularly in genetics. Ultimately, the underlying pathophysiology and aetiology will need to be understood to properly characterize the diseases causing recurrent wheeze in children.

Randomized trial comparing the i-gel™ and Magill tracheal tube with the single-use ILMA™ and ILMA™ tracheal tube for fibreoptic-guided intubation in anaesthetized patients with a predicted difficult airway

The i-gel™ is a single-use supraglottic airway device (SAD) that allows fibreoptic-guided tracheal intubation through the device. Until now, no prospective data for this procedure are available. Therefore, in a prospective randomized controlled trial, we evaluated fibreoptic-guided tracheal intubation with a standard Rüsch™ PVC tracheal tube (TT) through the i-gel™ compared with the single-use ILMA™ (sILMA™) TT through the sILMA™ in patients with a predicted difficult airway.

Randomized clinical trial of the i-gel™ and Magill tracheal tube or single-use ILMA™ and ILMA™ tracheal tube for blind intubation in anaesthetized patients with a predicted difficult airway

The single-use supraglottic airway device i-gel™ has been described in several case reports as a conduit for intubation, but no prospective data about success rates of blind intubation are available. Therefore, we performed this prospective randomized controlled trial to compare the success rate of blind tracheal intubation with a Magill PVC tube through the i-gel™ with intubation using an sILMA™ PVC tube through the single-use intubating laryngeal mask airway (sILMA™).

Breastfeeding and lung function at school age: does maternal asthma modify the effect?

The evidence for an effect of breastfeeding on lung function is conflicting, in particular whether the effect is modified by maternal asthma.

Meta-analysis of mould and dampness exposure on asthma and allergy in eight European birth cohorts: an ENRIECO initiative

Background:  Several cross-sectional studies during the past 10 years have observed an increased risk of allergic outcomes for children living in damp or mouldy environments. Objective:  The objective of this study was to investigate whether reported mould or dampness exposure in early life is associated with the development of allergic disorders in children from eight European birth cohorts. Methods:  We analysed data from 31 742 children from eight ongoing European birth cohorts. Exposure to mould and allergic health outcomes were assessed by parental questionnaires at different time points. Meta-analyses with fixed- and random-effect models were applied. The number of the studies included in each analysis varied based on the outcome data available for each cohort. Results:  Exposure to visible mould and/or dampness during first 2 years of life was associated with an increased risk of developing asthma: there was a significant association with early asthma symptoms in meta-analyses of four cohorts [0–2 years: adjusted odds ratios (aOR), 1.39 (95%CI, 1.05–1.84)] and with asthma later in childhood in six cohorts [6–8 years: aOR, 1.09(95%CI, 0.90–1.32) and 3–10 years: aOR, 1.10 (95%CI, 0.90–1.34)]. A statistically significant association was observed in six cohorts with symptoms of allergic rhinitis at school age [6–8 years: aOR, 1.12 (1.02–1.23)] and at any time point between 3 and 10 years [aOR, 1.18 (1.09–1.28)]. Conclusion:  These findings suggest that a mouldy home environment in early life is associated with an increased risk of asthma particularly in young children and allergic rhinitis symptoms in school-age children.